Editor's note: Moses Becker is a special commentator on political issues for News.Az, a PhD in political science and an expert on interethnic and interreligious relations. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
On November 5th, the United States will conduct its presidential elections, anticipated as one of the most unpredictable in the nation's history. The main contenders are the familiar figures of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, representing the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively. Given the bipartisan structure of the U.S. political system, independent candidates face formidable barriers to entry, with little realistic chance of success.
The outcome of these elections is set to influence global politics over the next four years, underlining the U.S.'s continued role as a dominant world power. The country maintains the most formidable military capabilities globally, with over 900 bases worldwide, underscoring its strategic interests. Despite these strengths, such commitments account for a substantial economic burden, with the military budget for 2024 set at $882 billion—unmatched by any other nation. A significant portion of this budget is allocated to advancing military technology, reinforcing the U.S.’s technological supremacy.
However, the fiscal landscape presents challenges, with the national debt soaring to a record $33 trillion. In a notable shift, there has been a reduction in foreign holdings of American securities. For example, China has decreased its holdings of U.S. bonds from $1.3 trillion to $700 billion, a trend echoed by Russia.
The U.S.’s influence in Latin America, once dominated by the Monroe Doctrine, has also seen a decline since the Cuban revolution in the early 1960s. Today, nations like Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Brazil exhibit policies increasingly divergent from U.S. interests, signaling a broader shift in regional dynamics. This evolving geopolitical landscape necessitates a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy.
Amid these challenges, the rise of China as a formidable adversary is particularly significant. With its expanding naval capabilities, now surpassing those of the U.S., China is poised to challenge American dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. This backdrop raises pertinent questions about the foreign policy strategies of the two main candidates, whose approaches could define the future trajectory of U.S. international relations.
Assessing the impact of Biden’s migration policy
Trump draws a parallel between contemporary America and the historical decline of the Roman Empire, which he attributes to internal disruptions caused by external invasions, unsustainable military expenditures, and social policies catering to the demands of the populace. He asserts that the current U.S. migration policy and a perceived over-extension of liberal values and positive discrimination are exacerbating social divisions, citing rising antisemitism on university campuses as a forewarning of potential national decline.
While these assertions capture a significant narrative, it is crucial to contextualize them within broader socio-political and economic frameworks. Migration has long been a complex issue in American politics, with diverse impacts on society and the economy. Analysts point out that migration can also have positive effects, such as labor market flexibility and cultural dynamism, which are often overlooked in politically charged debates.
As the U.S. approaches the election, the debate over migration underscores the polarized views on how to manage America’s borders and internal cohesion. It highlights the need for a nuanced discussion that considers the multifaceted consequences of migration policies and the broader geopolitical and economic challenges facing the nation.
Comparative analysis of Trump and Biden’s economic policies
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the economic policies of the candidates are under intense scrutiny. Donald Trump advocates for complete economic decoupling from China, proposing to revoke China's status as a "most favored nation" in bilateral trade. Polls indicate a higher level of public trust in Trump's economic vision, with two-thirds of voters recalling the economic conditions during his presidency as favorable. Conversely, only 38% of respondents feel positively about the current economic policies under Joe Biden, with 59% rating the situation as poor. Additionally, 55% of those surveyed express concerns that Biden’s policies might lead to increased inflation, whereas 44% believe Trump’s strategies could decrease prices.
Despite criticisms, it is notable that Joe Biden has continued the reindustrialization agenda initiated by Trump. Trump’s imposition of tariffs contributed to a partial substitution of imports from China with domestically produced medium-tech goods. Biden expanded these efforts with governmental support to the industry amounting to $4 trillion, enhancing job creation through reshoring and direct foreign investments.
Moreover, a noteworthy aspect of Trump’s presidency was his avoidance of new military conflicts, which he argues fostered a more stable global environment conducive to economic growth. His involvement in the "Abraham Accords" is cited as a key achievement, reshaping power dynamics in the Middle East by bolstering moderate regimes and marginalizing aggressive actors. This agreement, Trump claims, significantly contributed to making Iran a regional pariah following its April 1, 2024, attack on Israel.
As the elections draw near, these contrasting economic visions underscore the critical choices facing American voters, who will decide the future direction of their nation’s economy and its role on the global stage.
