Editor's note: Moses Becker is a special commentator on political issues for News.Az, a PhD in political science and an expert on interethnic and interreligious relations. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
French President Emmanuel Macron's attempt to prevent the right-wing National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, from coming to power led to unexpected results — no one won. Although the New People's Front formally performed the best, its representatives did not gain the necessary majority to form a government: the alliance received only 182 seats, significantly less than half of the 577 seats in the lower house of the National Assembly. The likely winners will have to rely on a coalition with the centrist alliance Together for the Republic, which won 168 seats, including Macron's party.The New People's Front itself is a coalition of leftist parties, with each leader envisioning themselves as the prime minister. Bardella noted that the National Rally lost only because the leftist alliance and Macron created an "unnatural coalition."
The French majoritarian system played its part: the New People's Front and Macronists fielded joint candidates in many districts to prevent National Rally representatives from entering parliament. This is not the first time centrists and leftists have united against the National Rally, as seen in the 2022 presidential elections when Macron faced off against Marine Le Pen. Despite the mobilization of the electorate and close cooperation between the left and the Macronists, the National Rally increased its representation in parliament from 89 seats to 143, which says a lot.
The question arises: what is the role of the parliament and government in the presidential republic that France has been since 1958, and how does the majoritarian system work? Why are the elections to the National Assembly so fiercely contested? How will the current balance of power affect the 2027 presidential elections?
It should be noted that the French parliament has real powers, and the government formed on its basis plays an important role in the country's life. The parliament adopts three types of laws — constitutional (amending the Constitution), organic (on specific issues indicated in the Constitution), and ordinary. It approves the state budget and controls its implementation. In foreign policy, defense, and security, the parliament grants permission for declaring war, extending a state of siege beyond 12 days, ratifying or approving certain international treaties, etc. The parliament also has the right of amnesty, which underscores its significance.
Moreover, the head of government can potentially aspire to the presidency of the republic. Nicolas Sarkozy, for instance, made a leap to the pinnacle of power from the position of interior minister. The position of president allows for country governance: the president has the right to dissolve the National Assembly, with conditions: dissolution cannot occur within a year after the previous one, during a state of emergency, and cannot be initiated by a temporary president (the president of the Senate acting as head of state until a new president is elected).
The president can submit any bill concerning the organization of public authorities to a referendum, make decisions on declaring a state of emergency in the country. The Constitution allows the president to establish a personal dictatorship if necessary, taking measures that, in his opinion, are dictated by the circumstances. The president forms the executive branch, is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and is responsible for the use of strategic nuclear forces.
Now let's consider the majoritarian electoral system, which effectively prevented the victory of the National Rally. This system is rightly called the French model. According to this system, a candidate needs to gain 50% plus one vote to be elected in the first round. If no one achieves this "50%+1" in the first round, a second round is held with the two candidates who received the most votes. To win in the second round, it is enough to gain just one more vote than the competitor.
In such a system, a minimum voter turnout threshold is usually established. If this threshold is not met, the elections are considered invalid or not held. This threshold can be half of the registered voters or less. When it equals half of the registered voters, the absolute majority of the total votes cast theoretically can be 25%+1. If an absolute majority of valid votes is required for election, then the share of the total number of registered voters can be even less.
The main advantage of this system is that candidates supported by the actual majority of voters are elected, even if this majority is just one vote. However, in this case, the votes cast against the winning candidates are lost. When presidential elections are held, for which the entire country is the electoral district, this does not matter. But in the case of parliamentary elections, where each department is a separate district, each electing a separate deputy, it may turn out that the party which received the majority of votes nationwide gets a minority of seats, as happened with the National Rally.
The New People's Front coalition consists of Socialists, Greens, Communists, the Unsubmissive France party, and their supporters. The Unsubmissive France is led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, an opponent of Macron. There is no unity in the left camp regarding the candidacy for the post of prime minister: all the party leaders in the alliance want to take the helm.
Given that no political force has enough deputy mandates to form a single-party cabinet, France might face a so-called technical government, which will be responsible for the uninterrupted performance of state functions, such as paying salaries to public sector employees. Possible candidates for the role of technical prime minister include experts from Macron's inner circle, including the Secretary-General of the Élysée Palace, Alexis Kohler, and the Paris police prefect, Laurent Nuñez.
There is also discussion about the possibility of the president governing through governmental ordinances and decrees, bypassing parliament. But this option is unlikely to match Macron's ambitions. Legal experts point out that the government still needs to seek permission from parliament to issue ordinances, which must later be approved by parliament. Decrees mainly regulate the normative base, and significant changes to public rules cannot be made without legislation.
To get out of this deadlock, we will have to wait a whole year — only then is there an opportunity to dissolve the current parliament and call new elections. As a result of the current situation, the international role of the French president, and hence France itself, is significantly devalued. Macron lacks solid support in the country, and considering the upcoming US elections and the rise of far-right forces in the European Union, his situation is unenviable. In case of Donald Trump's victory, there will be global changes, and the de facto defeat of the current President of the French Republic will be the first signal on the way to a new world order.
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