Speaking on June 27 on the eve of Media Workers Day at a reception where awards were presented to distinguished journalists, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid special attention to the powers of the head of state. He emphasized that the term of presidential powers approved at the referendum is a reality that no one will correct (by adjustments to the Constitution). And it means literally the following — in 2029 in Kazakhstan, the president will be changed, and it will happen by legal expression of the will of citizens.
As you understand, this new president will not appear out of thin air but will most likely be nominated by one of the existing political parties, which will meet in the electoral battle for the mandates of deputies of the Majilis in 2028.
The party leader of the big electoral two-year race, whose nominee will occupy the post of the president of Kazakhstan, will also be determined then.
It seems only to young people that the terms of office of deputies of the lower house of parliament and the president are pushed into the unattainable future. The “problem-2029” is already being discussed on the sidelines of the power cabinets, as the team of the current president has a twofold task – to ensure the continuity of the course of democratic/liberal transformations and to prevent the party revenge of Old Kazakhstan. Since it was impossible to change the country’s power in 2022, Tokayev’s opponents will surely try to take the institutional route. After all, the former national favorite Nursultan Nazarbayev, on the wave of euphoria from Kazakhstan’s independence, established his own dictatorship in exactly the same way – first by being elected in democratic elections, then by holding a referendum in favor of extending his powers, and then by gradually rewriting the Constitution to suit himself. In the final stages, the approval of the people has yet to be asked for.
The Trojan horse could be any of the current parties, and we’ll talk about that.
Amanat
The most influential party of Kazakhstan in the past was the support of Yelbasy (“Father of the Nation”, meaning Nursultan Nazarbayev). It was founded in 1999 through the merger of several political organizations, the largest of which was the Party of People’s Unity of Kazakhstan (PNUK). In modern Wikipedia, the initiative of merging PNEC and other parties is presented under the authorship of Nursultan Nazarbayev, but the head of Kazakhstan was not interested in party building at that time. Suffice it to say that the Otan party, which resulted from the merger, appeared a month after the early presidential election, in which Nazarbayev won a “modest” 79.78% of the vote.
In 2006, two congresses of Otan were held, at which three more political organizations joined the party – the Asar Party, founded by Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter Dariga and her then-husband Rakhat Aliyev, and the Civic and Agrarian Parties, which had previously formed the AIST pre-election bloc. After that, Otan was renamed Nur Otan – from “fatherland” to “light of the fatherland”.
The main criticism of Nur Otan during Yelbasy’s rule was that its main asset was the head of state. If he leaves the ranks of the party, it will immediately disintegrate.
This thesis has already been refuted by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who, after the January events, switched on the mode of accelerated democratization of the country. He left the Nur Otan party, which then received the name Amanat – that is, people of loyalty or honor, if in the general sense. And so “amanats” were the children of high-ranking persons taken hostage (for safekeeping, as a deposit). Something akin to the Turkish practice of the Janissaries.
Amanat did not fall apart with Tokayev’s departure; it even became more active. At the moment, it is the most influential party in the country. It has 62 out of 98 mandates of deputies of the Majilis of the Kazakh Parliament, the majority in almost all local representative bodies — Maslikhats. The party is headed by the speaker of the Majilis, Yerlan Koshanov.
Democratic Party of Kazakhstan “Ak Zhol”
The history of the party is certainly more interesting than its present. The party was registered with the justice authorities in April 2002. Less than half a year earlier, in November 2001, the first serious political crisis occurred in Kazakhstan. We will not go into the background, especially since a thoughtful study of it leaves the impression that some of the ministers of the then government who went to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and became prime minister were recruited through advertisements. At present, none of the then-instigators of the revolt against Nazarbayev are even close to being in power or big business. Mukhtar Ablyazov, a banker turned blogger, is the most notable of the pool of rioters of that time.
Ak Zhol was founded by politicians Bulat Abilov, Oraz Zhandosov, and Alikhan Baimenov, who split from the core of the rioters who had joined the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan movement. The party’s name, Ak Zhol, i.e., “The Bright Path,” is the battle cry of the Kazakh Argyn tribe.
The party went through a traditional split for Kazakh liberals. The resulting organization, “Nagyz Ak Zhol” (“Real Ak Zhol”), did not achieve much success. It went through a rebranding, becoming the party “Azat,” but that was the end of it.
The current Ak Zhol is headed by Azat Peruashev, former chairman of the Civic Party of Kazakhstan. Now, it positions itself as a parliamentary opposition, concentrating on defending business from the arbitrary actions of state bodies.
People’s Party of Kazakhstan
This organization appeared in 2004. It was originally the People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan (PCK), formed as a result of the split of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, headed by the former speaker of the country’s Supreme Soviet, Serikbolsyn Abdildin.
As soon as the Communists in its leadership ran out, the KNPK got rid of the adjective in its name. Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, a former advisor to Nazarbayev and former Minister of Information, heads the party. The party had repeatedly become a source of scandals when Yertysbayev forced out those he did not want to be in the party.
People’s Democratic Patriotic Party “Auyl”
Recently, the party revised its statutes, deciding to focus on the rural electorate. For this purpose, a regular XXIV congress was convened, which was held in the village of Zerenda, Akmola region.
“The congress adopted a new program – more specialized than the previous one and entirely focused on the village and its inhabitants. This is, in principle, quite an important move because it seems that the time of programs “for all good and against all bad” is over. The party needs its own electorate, which will provide even small but stable support at the elections, allowing it to send its people to the local authorities and parliament. Apparently, the new format of the congress, which was held in the village, the focus on the development of the village, not only through agriculture but also through tourism, as well as the conservative trend in values, is connected with this. Let’s see how the voters will evaluate it,” political scientist Marat Shibutov commented on this event.
Nationwide Social Democratic Party
There is a certain overlap between the history of the creation of this political organization and the current trend voiced by Tokayev. The party was formed in 2006 based on the movement “For a Fair Kazakhstan,” which earlier nominated former Majilis speaker Zharmakhan Tuyakbai as a presidential candidate. After the failure in the electoral race, an initiative group of citizens proposed to turn the ZSK movement into the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (NSDP).
For quite a long time, the party positioned itself as an opposition party, sometimes boycotting elections but without fanaticism — according to Kazakhstani legislation, non-participation in electoral races leads to the abolition of a political organization. Now, it has four representatives in the Majilis, but Ak Zhol, not the OSDP, is the real opposition organization. Tokayev is fighting for a Fair Kazakhstan.
The Green Party “Baitak” and Respublica
Two new parties emerged after the bloody events of January 2022. The Greens failed to get into the lower house of parliament, while Respublica has a faction of three Majilismen. By the way, this party could compete with Ak Zhol in the protection of business, as it was created by representatives of the entrepreneurial environment. However, while the information background in and around the Majilis is created by Amanatov and Akzhol, other representatives of parliamentary parties are rarely heard.
From what was not included
As we can see, any party, including Amanat and Ak Zhol, can become a guide for representatives of Old Kazakhstan to the top of at least the legislative power. However, there have been no signs of such hidden penetration so far. What cannot be said about those public figures or organizations that have not got into the parliament yet?
For example, the activities of Sanzhar Bokayev, who wanted to register his party Namys, i.e., “honor,” in 2022, aroused serious suspicions. Bokayev held the presentation of this organization (he called the event a statutory congress but did not gather the required number of delegates) in the Novotel hotel owned by… Aliya Nazarbayeva. At the same time, Bokaev earned fame as a fighter against waste collection, the main beneficiary of which was Aliya Nazarbayeva and her LLP “Operator ROP.” As we can see, Old Kazakhstan can use very sophisticated technologies to convince everyone that it is not him.
Who knows? Perhaps the “sleeping” deputies from OSDP, NPK, and the parties “Auyl” and Respublica will suddenly wake up one day with the theses that “It wasn’t like this under Nazarbayev.”
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