Russia sends millions of shells to the Ukrainian front every year and carries out regular air strikes on civilian targets, often using munitions allegedly supplied by its allies. While Western countries try to limit Russia’s weapons production capabilities through sanctions, China, Iran and North Korea are believed to be helping to keep the Russian military-industrial complex running.
Drones and missiles from IranIran was recently accused of striking a deal with Russia to supply it with 200 or more Fatah-360 short-range ballistic missiles. They have a range of 120 km and carry 150 kg of explosives.
US intelligence claims that dozens of Russian military personnel have been trained in Iran to use the missiles. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Russia could deploy the missiles to the Ukrainian front this fall.
The Fatah-360 missiles would allow Russia to strike Ukrainian cities and power plants close to the border and use longer-range missiles in its arsenal to hit targets deep in the country.
“The Fatah-360 is good at hitting targets at relatively close range,” said Dr Marina Miron, from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. “Russia doesn’t have its own missile like that.”
In return, she said, Russia could provide Iran with military technology, possibly including nuclear technology.
The US, UK, France and Germany have imposed new sanctions on Iran for supplying missiles to Russia.
They include restrictions on Iran Air flights to the UK and Europe, as well as travel bans and asset freezes on Iranians believed to be involved in the deal.
Iran has repeatedly denied supplying Russia with homing weapons, including the Fatah-360.
The Ukrainian government and Western intelligence agencies also claim that Iran has been supplying Russia with Shahed-136 drones since the fall of 2022.
The Shahed is equipped with a warhead in the nose and is designed to loiter toward a target and then strike it.
Russian forces often send dozens of drones in a “swarm” to try to penetrate Ukraine’s air defenses. Often, these drone swarms are used as a barrier to prevent Ukrainian air defenses from intercepting cruise and ballistic missiles that are capable of causing much greater damage.
The Iranian government claims that it only supplied Russia with a “small number” of drones before the war.
However, the United States and the European Union have accused Iran of regularly supplying Russia , and the EU has imposed sanctions on individuals and firms involved.
Missiles and shells fromNorth Korea
The US Intelligence Agency (DIA) reported in its May 2024 report that North Korea had supplied Russia with three million artillery shells.
Artillery is the main weapon used by both sides on the front in Ukraine. It prevents enemy armored vehicles and infantry from maneuvering and moving forward.
According to the British Royal Institute for Defence Studies, in recent months, Russia's stockpiles of shells have been five times larger than Ukraine's.
According to analysts at the institute, this has become the main reason why Russia has seized significant territories in eastern Ukraine since the winter of 2023.
In January 2024, Ukrainian intelligence claimed to have found the remains of two types of short-range ballistic missiles produced by North Korea that were fired at Kharkiv in a major air attack.
Ukrainian authorities claim that one of them is a Hwasong-11 missile, also known as the KN-23.
It is a short-range ballistic missile with a range of 400 km to 690 km and can carry warheads weighing up to 500 kg.
Since 2006, the UN has imposed sanctions on ballistic missile-related trade with North Korea.
Ukrainian intelligence claims that North Korea has sent 50 missiles to Russia, and at a UN Security Council meeting in February 2024, the US accused Russia of using North Korean missiles in at least nine air attacks on Ukraine.
According to the DIA, Russia and North Korea began negotiations on arms sales in the fall of 2022, and the first missiles were sent from North Korea to Russia in the fall of 2023 for testing.
US intelligence believes that Russia began firing them at Ukraine in January 2024 from across the border.
“Hwasong-11 missiles are cheaper for Russia than its own short-range missiles, such as the Iskander,” says Miron. “In addition, making arms deals with countries like Iran and North Korea shows the West that Russia has allies and has not been isolated.”
Ballistic missiles, including the Hwasong-11, are difficult to intercept because of the supersonic speed at which they descend to their target. However, Ukrainian intelligence claims that many missiles from North Korea miss their targets because of electronic glitches that cause them to deviate from their programmed trajectory.
North Korea denies sending weapons to Russia, and Russia denies receiving them.
According to some reports, Ukrainian intelligence officers have spotted North Korean soldiers in the country. Ukrainian newspapers reported that on October 3, 2024, six North Korean officers were killed and three others wounded in a missile strike on a Russian military training base in the east of the country.
The last time allegations of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine appeared in 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin called them “complete nonsense.”
China and Dual-Use Components
NATO leaders have jointly accused China of being a “critical enabler” of Russia, providing “massive support to its defense industry.”
They say it supplies “dual-use” components such as computer chips that, in addition to their civilian uses, can also be used to make weapons.
The US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) claims that China sends Russia $300 million worth of “high-priority” dual-use products every month that can be used to make weapons such as drones, missiles, and tanks.
According to the center, China sells Russia 70% of its machine tools (which can be used to make gun casings) and 90% of its microelectronics, such as chips and semiconductors (which can be used, among other things, for missile guidance systems).
According to CEIP, Russia imported 89% of its priority dual-use goods from China in 2023. The report says that before the war, Germany and the Netherlands supplied most of these goods. When sanctions stopped exporting them to Russia, China stepped in to fill the gap.
China denies helping Russia build weapons, saying it is neutral in the war in Ukraine. Beijing says it has not supplied Russia with lethal weapons and is careful about which components it sells to Moscow.
Reuters reports that Russia has opened a factory in China to make a new type of long-range drone called the Harpy-3.
The Chinese government has said it is unaware of the project and that the country has strict controls on drone exports, Reuters reports.
