Editor's note: Abraham Shmulevich, Israeli political scientist, president of the Eastern Partnership Institute. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
In recent years, tensions in the Middle East have once again increased, with the potential conflict between Israel and Iran coming into focus. The historical, political, and military aspects of this conflict create a complex and multilayered picture involving not only regional players but also global powers such as the United States.One of the key elements of this conflict is the activity of Hezbollah, closely linked with Iran. Iran uses this organization as a tool to pressure Israel and has repeatedly stated that in the event of an escalation of conflict against Hezbollah, it would intervene. Iran is not interested in the destruction of Hezbollah, as it sees this organization as beneficial to its interests.
Seeking to strengthen its influence, Iran is attempting to unite Shiite organizations in Iraq under its aegis to control the country after the Americans leave. In Syria, the Assad regime is an ally of Iran, and in Lebanon, Iran's main support is Hezbollah.
Furthermore, Iran recruits former Afghan army personnel who are skilled in using American weapons and, with the help of intelligence services, transports them to Syria and Lebanon. Thus, Iran is preparing for the eventuality that, if Israel starts a large-scale war, these militants will join the fight.
U.S. policy also plays a significant role in this conflict. There is an opinion that the Biden administration is intentionally prolonging conflicts. Israel is also under pressure from the United States, despite strong Israeli lobbying and influential allies who want to end both Hamas and Hezbollah.
For Israel, American weapons are not critical for continuing military operations, as the country has its own defense industry. Even before the escalation, Israel purchased weapons from the U.S. worth six billion dollars. Israel independently produces many types of weapons and has long-term contracts for their supply, so delays in the delivery of American weapons do not play a significant role in the current conflict with Hamas. However, in the event of a war with Iran, this situation could change. Israel is interested in resuming the supply of American weapons, as it could have a decisive impact in a larger conflict.
Biden is not an enemy of Israel, although the relationship between his administration and Israel is quite complex. Biden is in a difficult situation ahead of the presidential election and needs success to boost his ratings. Ending the war in Gaza could be such a success. If the conflict gets out of control, it could negatively affect the Biden administration and his re-election chances. Therefore, Washington seeks to postpone active hostilities until after the elections or achieve a peace agreement between Hamas and Israel. However, Israel has its own interests, and Netanyahu shows great firmness. It is likely that Israel will achieve the resumption of American arms supplies.
The future of the Middle East remains uncertain and full of challenges. The interaction between global and regional players, as well as the internal dynamics of the countries involved in conflicts, creates complex conditions for achieving stability and peace.
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