By Tural Tagiyev
On June 23, a series of terrorist attacksoccurred in Dagestan, attracting the attention of the world press. The militants' assaults on Makhachkala and Derbent, as well as attacks on two Orthodox churches, a synagogue, and a traffic police post, indicate that they were well prepared. The victims of the attacks included an elderly priest, a church security guard, and about 20 law enforcement officers, including the police chief of the city of Dagestanskiye Ogni.Notably, the terrorists primarily used foreign weapons, including AR-15 assault rifle. This weapon has several modifications and is often used in mass killings. These events are considered the first serious terrorist acts in the republic in the past 12 years.
No organization has claimed responsibility for the attacks. However, according to Russian media reports, the militants may be linked to an international terrorist organization. Officials are concerned that terrorism could have serious consequences in the region. For example, Imangali Tasmagambetov, Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), stated that the attacks could destabilize the region.
"If Russia requests assistance after the attacks in Dagestan, allies will not stand aside, especially considering the network nature of such extremist and terrorist groups. Such events could seriously disrupt regional stability," he noted.
Attempts to give a religious tint to the horrific terrorist acts in Dagestan, near the border with Azerbaijan, could pose a threat and have serious consequences for Azerbaijan and the entire region.
Retired Colonel Shair Ramaldanov commented on the topic in an interview with News.Az. He noted that such events could have serious consequences not only for one country but for the entire region. He also emphasized that the President of Azerbaijan had taken farsighted measures to ensure the country's security.
"When the country's leadership spoke about the need to close land roads, they meant precisely such situations. Currently, deep processes are underway against Russia. Coalition countries supporting Kyiv are waging a major war against Russia on Ukrainian territory. At the same time, there are forces interested in activating certain processes within Russia. The North Caucasus has always been a hot spot in Russia. Therefore, it is not surprising that such a terrible attack took place there," Ramaldanov noted.
The expert maintains that some link the events in Dagestan with well-known developments in the Middle East, but these terrorist acts are not driven by religious or other Middle Eastern causes. They are rooted in aspects that undermine Russia's security. Security threats in a territory close to Azerbaijan are of serious concern. The President of Azerbaijan foresaw such threats and their possible consequences long before they manifested themselves.
"It is difficult to say what the events in Dagestan will lead to now. But, based on incoming data, these forces are supported from abroad, indicating the presence of forces striving to split Russia. Such major terrorist acts aim to create conflict hotspots in our northern neighbor. Attempts to use the religious aspect have intensified recently," Ramaldanov added.
He called the demonstration of religious factors in recent events a dangerous and potentially destructive move for the region. Many people who practice Islam live in this region. The attacks by the Dagestan group on Christian and Jewish holy sites aim to provoke serious developments.
"Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that religious developments in Dagestan could pose threats not only to Azerbaijan but to the entire region. Relevant security agencies are taking necessary measures, and the border service is also taking additional actions. But in the age of the Internet and widespread use of social networks, it is easy to influence people, especially young believers. Therefore, the sooner the situation in Dagestan and the North Caucasus normalizes, the better for our region. If incidents continue, undesirable extremist groups will become active. The southern neighbor could also take advantage of the situation and activate radicals," he noted.
He added that in any case, any undesirable developments in border countries affect the region. "The readiness of the countries in the region for such developments and their resilience depend on their ability to counter extremist groups. The recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan and previous events could have been foreseen in advance. The domestic stability of Azerbaijan guarantees us the ability to deal with any undesirable processes that may pose a threat to the region. We will not allow religious extremism to penetrate our country. We must be vigilant and not succumb to extremist calls on social networks," he noted.
In turn, military expert Adalat Verdiyev also did not rule out the possibility that terrorist acts in Dagestan could negatively impact our region. He emphasized: "We have previously encountered large-scale terrorist attacks in the southern regions of Russia, including Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Chechnya, not only in the early 1990s and 2000s but also in recent days. Undoubtedly, horrific terrorist acts near our borders and the complex criminogenic situation could have a certain impact on the territory of Azerbaijan. We have also observed similar processes in Iran, near our southern borders."
The expert clarified that Azerbaijan has specific data about who might be behind such events: "Perhaps this is why we prefer to keep our land borders closed for now. It’s worth noting an interesting aspect of recent events. After the well-known terrorist acts in Dagestan, we see some local residents celebrating these days, which are observed as days of mourning in Russia, as festive. We saw a similar situation when airstrikes were carried out on Iran, and some applauded these attacks... This leads us to conclude that these terrorist acts occurring near our land borders are controlled by other global powers."
The specialist added that the main goal is to destabilize the situation in the region: "The West is interested in increasing the number of Russian casualties and driving the internal criminogenic situation to an uncontrollable state. Azerbaijan, as an island of stability, may face an increase in terrorist acts and the creation of new focal points of tension both in the south and the north, which could lead to a massive influx of refugees. Therefore, in an effort to eliminate these factors and prevent undesirable processes, Azerbaijan has made a thoughtful decision to keep its land borders closed."
