After the ruling party of Emmanuel Macron, "Renaissance," failed in the European Parliament elections, the president decided to dissolve the parliament and hold early elections to give the French people a chance to express their views on his domestic and foreign policies.
According to polls , Marine Le Pen's National Rally currently enjoys the support of 36% of voters, the "New People's Front" has 26%, and the pro-presidential "Renaissance" only 19%. This does not guarantee an outright victory for the far-right forces, but it does signal a shift for parties aiming to preserve traditional values. In any case, even if Macron manages to form a majority from various political forces, he will not be an all-powerful president and will have to take into account the position of a non-"his" prime minister.On June 10, the National Rally nominated Jordan Bardella as their candidate for the head of government, who already demands complete freedom of action. "If I govern the country without an absolute majority, I won't be able to reduce VAT on fuel and gas... I won't be able to drastically cut migration." And this is coming from a person who is himself a descendant of migrants. Recently, the interests of France have increasingly been defended by non-native French.
For instance, the current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is a descendant of White émigrés on his mother's side and an Algerian Jew on his father's side. This speaks in favor of the liberal values that France has adhered to in the post-war period and confirms that most migrants and their descendants have successfully integrated into the new social environment. As noted by Le Monde, today every fourth resident of France has at least one ancestor of immigrant origin. Bardella himself attests to this, stating, "I came from other places, but now I'm local." Therefore, law-abiding citizens have no reason to fear for their future. The French are mainly outraged by migrants who preach radical views, religious, or racial intolerance. A significant blow to Macron's party's image was an unprovoked attack on a Jewish girl by a group of radical Islamists. According to the victim, the boys dragged her to a secluded spot, insulted her with anti-Semitic slurs, and raped her. After the arrest, two of them were charged with gang rape, anti-Semitic insults, violence, and death threats. This is far from an isolated incident. According to the report of the French Council of Jewish Institutions, the number of anti-Semitic incidents in France increased by 284% from 2022 to 2023.
In other words, President Macron's tenure cannot be called favorable for the Jews of France. Against this backdrop, Jordan Bardella's statement that if he comes to power, he will "fight anti-Semitism that has plagued France since October 7" was very encouraging. Thus, the Jewish community received unexpected support from the far-right French party. Similar support was voiced by Marine Le Pen at the Vox party congress held on May 18-19, 2024, in Madrid. A significant event of this gathering was the presence of Israeli Minister for Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli from the Likud party.
His participation highlighted the strategic interaction between Israel and European far-right groups. Chikli emphasized the need to create a united front against radical Islam, which aligns with the anti-immigration and nationalist sentiments that resonate widely among a significant portion of voters.
The partnership between the right and the Jewish state aims to demonstrate strong support for Israel as a defender of Western values. How did President Macron act in this situation? After the events of October 7, he resolutely supported Israel's right to self-defense. During his Middle East tour on October 24-25, Macron even proposed the idea of an anti-Hamas alliance similar to the coalition created against the Islamic State. "We could create a territorial and regional group to fight terrorists," Macron said during talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "I think this would serve the interests of Israel, as well as many of its neighbors." However, under certain pressures, France suddenly barred Israel from participating in the major international defense exhibition Eurosatory 2024 in Paris. "By the decision of the French government, there will be no Israeli defense industry exhibits at Eurosatory 2024," the event organizer announced. Although the French court overturned this decision, it severely damaged the president's image.
Amid these fluctuations, it is clear that Macron's party's chances are diminishing. If the National Rally wins the parliamentary elections, it will be able to severely restrict the president's actions. It is known that according to the constitution, the president is responsible for foreign policy in the republic. However, if the right-wing manages to gain a majority in the assembly, the state budget will be under their control. In this case, Macron loses leverage over domestic policy issues, including economic policy and security. The current Prime Minister of France, Gabriel Attal, did not rule out the reduction of military aid to Ukraine if the far-right wins the parliamentary elections.
According to him, Jordan Bardella proposes financing his campaign promises by reducing France's contribution to Europe. If he indeed manages to improve the welfare of the people, ensure citizens' security, eliminate migrant ghettos, and restore peace on the streets of French cities, then the National Rally will take power "seriously and for a long time."
Another question is what will happen to the European Union and how the rise to power of right-wing politicians will affect its "indestructibility," since this process will apparently not stop at France. Whether the "State of Europe" project will continue or break into Europe of states remains to be seen. For now, Bardella assured that he will fulfill France's obligations within NATO, including increasing defense spending, "because the trust of European partners and allies in the North Atlantic bloc is at stake," despite Le Pen's earlier promise to withdraw France from the command of this organization.
So, the elections are approaching. According to analysts' forecasts, the National Rally is likely to elect the most deputies to the National Assembly, having already joined forces with a group of representatives from the center-right party "The Republicans." Their joint majority is expected to be relative, meaning less than half of the 577 seats in the Bourbon Palace (within 220-240 mandates). But let's not speculate. Especially since a similarly heated pre-election period is happening in the United Kingdom. We'll see what events unfold. In any case, the shift to the right in Europe has already occurred, as evidenced by changes in the leadership of the European Union.
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